Dextant

Record / Validation

What has been tested

The scoring method is a trade secret and is not described here. What is described is what was tested, on what, and what it showed.

01  /  Provenance

Corpus
Public, peer-reviewed match-event dataset, licensed CC BY 4.0. Full citation.
Season
2017/18
Scored coverage
Five European leagues
Players scored
1,904
Systems scored
98
Scored pairs
186,592
Stated as
A season archive. Never a live feed.

Coverage as of August 2026.

02  /  Held-out generalisation

The value layer was trained on one league and tested on a league it had never seen.

Fig.07AUCBrier
In-league0.7490.0138
Held out0.7320.0144
Gap0.017/ 0.040

Fig.07 · Held-out result against a stated threshold of 0.040.

The value layer carries across competitions. It is not fitted to one league.

The value layer is a published action-value model, trained here on the public corpus above. It is the floor the engine reads from, not the engine. It is stated because anyone holding the same public data can check it. The scoring above it is not described.

03  /  What the engine refuses to output

  • It does not compare athletes across roles that are asked for different things.
  • It does not estimate what it cannot observe. Off-ball movement needs a tracking feed, and is shown as absent rather than guessed.
  • It does not print a numeric score beside a named athlete in public.
  • It does not predict injuries. It is not a scouting database.

A blank is a real output.

04  /  Stated boundaries

Record
On-ball only. What happens off the ball needs a tracking feed the engine does not yet read.
Season depth
One season. Every read is a comparative static, not a forecast.
Currency
A season archive. It is not connected to a live feed.
What would move this
Multi-season outcome data, and a tracking feed.

05  /  Under review

The following exist, and are open to a technical reviewer under confidentiality.

  • 01Verification protocol in full
  • 02Feature-group ablation on the value layer
  • 03Calibration methodology
  • 04Adverse results in full
  • 05Live demonstrator access

Access is by introduction

Engine v0.1. Record as of August 2026. Every figure on this page is logged against its source.